Does Northern Ontario need more people?

AuthorCirtwill, Charles
PositionThink Tank

The demographic shift is upon us, and has been for a while. Our overall population is falling and our total population is aging. Indigenous population is on the rise but, even there, we see early indications that as economic and social improvements occur population growth slows.

So, do we need more people? It depends on your point of view.

There are multiple schools of thought about the ongoing demographic shift.

Some think it is a good thing. That a smaller population will ease human pressure on our ecosystem and will benefit future generations of Northern Ontarians; allowing a better balance between humanity and the natural environment.

Others see it as our best chance in generations to finally fully engage those who have been trapped in unhealthy social and economic situations for far too long.

Another group sees it as a doorway to "Canada 2.0," an opportunity to bring in a massive influx of new Canadians. Still others see a chance to again give families the pride of place in society that they once had, before the baby boom made making babies less of a priority.

Your view on whether we need more people also depends on where you live in the North.

In the last decade or so some areas have actually grown in population.

The districts of Manitoulin, Kenora, Parry Sound, Greater Sudbury and Nipissing have all seen measurable growth in the last ten years. Much of this growth is likely due to urbanization and Indigenous population expansion (or in some cases the urbanization of the Indigenous population). But, for those communities, it is growth nonetheless.

Population growth, however, does not necessarily translate into greater community sustainability.

That depends to a large extent on something called the dependency ratio. This is the number of people who are willing and able to work versus the number of people who need to be supported by those people.

You can't just have population growth, you have to have population growth in the working ages and larger growth in the working ages than in the non-working ages. This is exactly the opposite of what we and most other developed and, indeed, developing countries are experiencing right now.

Most successful or sustainable economies have dependency ratios somewhere close to the .5 to .75 range. They are close to having two workers for every one dependent.

Economies that are unsustainable, or in decline, tend to be the inverse: having a ratio of 1 to 1.5 or greater, approximately two dependents (or...

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