Then there's the added twist of the March 26 election in Quebec, the outcome of which could be determined by [Jim Flaherty]'s ability to deliver the goods for Premier Jean Charest, whose success is vital to Prime Minister Stephen Harper's electoral hopes in the province.

Harper opened this fiscal can of worms in the 2006 election, when he agreed with the contention that Ottawa has more money than it needs while the provinces struggle to pay for costly social programs. Fixing that imbalance would entail boosting cash transfers to all provinces and increasing equalization, which redistributes wealth to poor provinces.

In the absence of provincial consensus, Flaherty is widely expected to adopt a compromise recommended by an expert federal panel, headed by Al O'Brien. That will mean reneging on Harper's campaign promise and including 50 per cent of resource revenue in the equalization formula, boosting the $11.7-billion annual program by almost $900 million.