Summary
With multibillion-dollar "stimulus" projects rolling out from governments this year, politicians should pick up a copy of a 2003 book, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Given the recent report on the feasibility of a high-speed train in Alberta, it would be especially useful to that province's politicians.
The authors (all academics and urban planners involved in transportation issues) write that, ultimately, most major projects were low-balled in terms of their predicted cost to the public treasury. "Whether we like it not," they write, "megaproject development is currently a field where little can be trusted, not even -- some would say especially not -- numbers produced by analysts."It's not as if high-speed rail would create much new demand for travel, resulting in new jobs and higher tax revenues. The TEMS report estimates between 88 per cent and 90 per cent of all high-speed passengers would come from existing modes of transportation. Therefore, much of the touted economic "benefit" would be a mirage because of the substitution effect, i.e., a dropped plane flight for a train ticket.See the full content of this document
Extract
High-Speed Train Is On Collision Course
CALGARY -- With multibillion-dollar "stimulus" projects rolling out from governments this year, politicians should pick up a copy of a 2003 book, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Given the recent report on the feasibility of a high-spee...
See the full content of this document
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