Northern Ontario's real trade deficit.

• Author: Robinson, David
• Position: Economically Speaking

Here's a trick question that everyone can answer. What is Northern Ontario's most valuable export?

The most valuable regional export is the 1,500 young people between 15 and 34 that leave the region every year. Let's do a quick calculation. Say they average 14 years of education. Ontario spends about $11,450 per student, per year on schooling. Governments and students together spend roughly $20,000 per year on post-secondary education. That adds up to a direct investment of $177,400 per person. Over a quarter-billion dollars' worth of education leaves the North every year.

Actually, these estimates are far too low. The real loss is the earning power, not the amount spent on education. The estimated lifetime earnings of a person between 15 and 34 with some post-secondary education was well over $700,000 in 2007. The average wages in Ontario are $50,000 per year in 2015. We are exporting earning machines.

Of course, we shouldn't really call children an export. We get paid for exports; we give our children away. Instead, we should call children who leak out of the North an "education deficit" or a "brain drain." Whatever we call it, whenever people think seriously about the Northern economy they seem to come up with the same line about exporting children.

It is always meant as a joke, and it always has an edge to it. It touches a painful truth. As parents we are glad if our kids find good jobs in Toronto, Vancouver or Saigon, but as parents we are sad that so many find jobs so far from home. We are conflicted.

Like parents, economists are also conflicted about children leaving. Like parents, economists hope education will create economic opportunities for the next generation. Like parents, economists feel compelled to give advice that is usually ignored.

Economists and parents know that educating talented young people is essential for the economy and essential for the kids themselves. We know the investment isn't wasted--the kids take it with them. And it is good for the whole country because the kids make an important contribution to the dynamic economy of metropolitan Canada. The nagging question is why they can't be part of a dynamic economy in Northern Ontario?

This is where economists and parents think differently. Parents advise children, so they focus on what is best for the individual child, economically. Economists advise policymakers, so...