Summary
Several studies have put all this together to estimate the overall impact of a pandemic on economic growth. In 2006 Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko found in a study for the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney that even a mild pandemic could shave 0.8 per cent off world GDP. For the worst possibility they considered, the drop would be a staggering 12.6 per cent.
Roughly comparable numbers emerge from a study by economists at America's Congressional Budget Office, which found that a Spanish-flu-like pandemic would lower real GDP growth in America by about five points. Even a milder episode would lead to a 1.5-point drop.These are large declines. The CBO notes that a severe pandemic would be like a typical post-war recession. As it happens, the worries about swine flu come when the world is already in its worst slump since the war. That would dampen the economic effects of a pandemic. But if a pandemic does occur, this would be small comfort indeed.See the full content of this document
Extract
Pandemic Economics Sickening
The scares over bird flu since 1997 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 have spurred research into the economic costs of pandemics. Studies paint a grim picture of what swine flu could mean for the world economy.
For example, World Bank economists estimat...See the full content of this document
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