Leadership selection in Alberta, 1992-2011: a personal perspective.

• Author: Morton, Ted
• Position: Report

In 1991, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta changed its rules for selecting its party leader. They abandoned their traditional method of a leadership convention (with delegates drawn from each constituency), and instituted a new one-member, one-vote system. Under this new system, the Alberta PCs have elected three new party leaders: Ralph Klein in 1992; Ed Stelmach in 2006; and Alison Redford in 2011. In each of these leadership contests the winner immediately became the Premier of Alberta. This article looks at the impact of the new selection procedure for politics in Alberta.

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The 1991 leadership reforms can best be described as creating what the Americans call an "open primary." Not only is it based on the one-member, one-vote principle, but the membership requirement is essentially "open". That is, there are no pre-requisites such as prior party membership or cutoff dates for purchasing a membership. Memberships can be bought at the door of the polling station on the day of the vote for $5. The system allows for two rounds of voting. If no candidate receives an absolute majority (50% + 1) on the first voting-day, then the top three (1) go on to a second vote one week later. (2) Membership sales remain open right up until the polling stations close on this second day of voting. Finally, in the second round, the vote is by preferential ballot. (3) For the three remaining candidates, voters indicate their first and second choice. If no candidate receives a simple majority, the third place finisher is dropped, and his supporters' second preferences are redistributed to the top two finishers. This guarantees that one will then have a majority. Taken together, these new rules gave the Alberta PC's the "most democratic" (i.e. open and transparent) leadership selection process of any political party in Canada., perhaps in the entire Parliamentary world.

Initially the Party was quite proud of its new democratic credentials. (4) But as these rules were put into play in three leadership contests over the next two decades, they have had significant and unintended consequences. I have tried to summarize these in the following six propositions:

* The rules favour "outsider" candidates over candidates supported by the Party Establishment.

* The rules create an incentive for the Second and Third Place candidates to ally themselves against the Front Runner in the second round of voting.

* The rules weaken the influence of Party Regulars.

* The rules create an incentive for non-party members-- "gate-crashers"--to purchase memberships and vote for the "least worst alternative".

* The rules reward candidates that cater to organized interests whose members can be quickly mobilized by email direct mail, telephone banks or social media. In the Alberta context, this has primarily been public sector unions.

* The rules have facilitated the growth of a second conservative party by pushing disillusioned Blue Tories into the Wildrose Party.

Proposition 1. Outsiders win, Establishment favourites lose

This is the most obvious consequence of the new leadership selection rules. In all three contests, each of the early favourites lost to a candidate that was considered an outsider, a long-shot, or both.

In the 1992 leadership, Edmonton MLA and Cabinet Minister Nancy Betkowski was beaten by Ralph Klein, the former mayor of Calgary. Betkowski had a long history with the Party and substantial Cabinet support. Klein was a relative new-comer to the Party. While Klein had the support of many back-benchers, he was not endorsed by a single Cabinet minister. Klein campaigned against Betkowksi by labeling her as "part of Tory Establishment." (5) In the first round of voting, Klein surprised Betkowski by tying her, each receiving 31% of the votes. (6) Cabinet Minister Rick Orman was a distant third with 15%, and withdrew, endorsing Betkowski. Indeed, six of the seven defeated first-round candidates endorsed her. These endorsements notwithstanding, Klein buried Betkowski in the second round of voting, 59% to 40%. (7) The number of "new" voters surged by over 35,000, and they supported Klein by a large margin.

In the 2006 contest, Jim Dinning was the overwhelming favourite of the Party establishment. Dubbed by the media as "The Prince" and the "Premier-in-waiting," he had held Cabinet positions under both Klein and Getty. Dinning had the support of 37 Caucus members, raised over $2 million dollars, and in the early stages of the campaign his team confidently predicted a first round victory.

The rest of the crowded field of eight candidates-- none of whom were given a chance of winning--included Ed Stelmach, a likeable but undistinguished Cabinet minister under Klein. Stelmach was endorsed by 13 MLAs, but was virtually unknown south of Edmonton. I was another one of the long-shots. I had only been elected as an MLA two years earlier. While I had been active at the federal level with the Reform Party, ! had no PC Party history, no caucus supporters, and no experience as a minister. At the outset, the Calgary Herald gave me "500-to-1 odds of winning".

When the first ballot came, we surprised Dinning (and ourselves) by coming in a close second and blocking Dinning's path to a first-ballot victory. (8) Dinning tallied only 30% of the votes. I received 26%, while Stelmach was a distant third at 15%. One week later, Stelmach shocked Dinning (and everyone else) by vaulting from third to first on first preferences. There was a 50% surge in new voters from a week earlier, and they went overwhelmingly to Stelmach. With Stelmach and Dinning then in a virtual tie (36% to 35%), I was eliminated and my supporters' second preferences were re-distributed to the two front runners. This was the end for Dinning. Of my supporters that indicated a second-preference on their ballots, 86% chose Stelmach. With this new wave of support, Stemach crushed Dinning by a margin of over 22,000 votes.

The 2011 PC leadership displayed a similar pattern. Gary Mar and I were the early favourites. Mar had held numerous important Cabinet positions during the Klein years. During the Stelmach years, he has served as Alberta's trade representative in Washington, D.C. Mar was the choice of the PC establishment; enjoyed the endorsement of 27 MLAs; and out-fundraised all his closest opponents by a two-to-one margin-raising over $2 million dollars. I was the first to declare my candidacy and enjoyed high name-recognition because of my role in Stelmach's decision to resign in January, 2011. I had also served as Stelmach's Minister of Sustainable Resources Development and Finance Minister. I was supported by 10 MLAs, and expected to build on my strong showing in the 2006 Leadership.

First Ballot Second Ballot Preferential Ballot Dinning 29,470 51,272 55,509 Morton 25,614 41,243 -- Stelmach 14,967 51,764 77,577 Others 28,639 -- -- Total 98,690 144,279 133,086 Among the other four candidates was Doug Homer, another experienced Cabinet minister from the Edmonton-area and the son of a former Cabinet minister. Like Stelmach in 2006, Homer was viewed as mainly a regional candidate. Ten of his 14 MLA supporters were from Edmonton and Northern Alberta. Last and, at the outset, probably least, was Alison Redford. Redford was a little-known feminist human-rights lawyer who had...