Some thoughts on the economic impacts of assembler-era nanotechnology.

• Author: Mehta, Michael D.

Introduction

Imagine a world where objects can be built without human intervention. In this future world, very small machines called "assemblers" can position in precise ways nanoscale constructs (individual atoms, molecules, or sub-assemblies of the same) that could theoretically be made from any raw material (e.g., carbon, silicon) (1), and could be based on blueprints that are patentable, and transportable through high speed networks like the Internet. This world may seem like something from the realm of science fiction, and may be an example of what I call "nano-hype" (2), but it is steadily becoming a reality due to advances in nanoscience. What possible economic impacts can we expect from such a fundamental shift in the functioning of the global economy once assembler technology becomes a reality?

The Assembler Stage

For many in the investment community, nanotechnology is a lightning rod for both criticism and promise. Having been stung by the rapid growth and collapse of the so-called "dot.com" sector, and now by problems facing the agricultural biotechnology sector, investors have become wary of claims that sound like nano-hype, or worse still science fiction. A significant obstacle faced by scientists, which reverberates throughout the investment community, is the scaling up of nanoscale processes and products to the macroscale level. Although existing nanoscale products like powders, coatings and crystals are lucrative (and stimulate a race for new patents), the true breakthrough will occur when nanoscientists can encourage directed self-assembly at the nanoscale, and when so-called universal assemblers are developed.

Directed self-assembly may involve developing processes where molecules mimic biology (known as biomimetics) by constructing nanostructures based on properties like the folding of proteins, by manipulating nucleic acid sequences and using cellular fuels like ATP to power hybrid organic-inorganic motors, pumps, and actuators. (3) By contrast, the search for a universal assembler involves developing a mechanism for positioning atoms and molecules in pre-defined ways using non-biological processes. Texas-based corporation Zyvex has developed a crude prototype of a nano assembler that picks up and places atoms using a modified atomic force microscope. (4) For Eric Drexler, a universal assembler could be a positioning device with different tools and tips that place, mill, add reactants and allow for the assembly of nanoscale components into larger structures (somewhat like assembling Ikea furniture!). (5) Following the laws of nature, the universal assembler should be able to build almost any object (including other assemblers). If, and when, this breakthrough in universal assembler technology occurs, nanotechnology will usher in a new kind of industrial revolution where existing manufacturing processes will be replaced, the concept of human labour reconsidered and the current basis of...