CHMC forecasts upswing in housing market.

• Author: GOULIQUER, DIANNE
• Position: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation holds - Housing Outlook Conference - Brief Article - Industry Overview - Statistical Data Included

Professionals attending the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) Housing Outlook Conference in Thunder Bay were given a dose of good news when CMHC officials said both the first time home buyer market and the rental market are heading toward better times in 2001.

The conference, a half-day session on Nov. 30-with presentations by some of Canada's foremost housing market analysts and top economists, offered a glimpse at key markets and opportunities, as well as the factors that will affect the housing market in Ontario and locally in 2001.

"Despite a poor year for single-detached starts in 2000, CMHC is forecasting an improvement in single and multi-family starts in the year ahead as some high-profile lots come on stream," Warren Philp, the market analyst in CMHC's Thunder Bay office, says.

"Both the first-time home buyer market and the rental market should see marked improvement in 2001 as employment at the casino and call centres starts to impact the local housing market," Philp says.

CMHC Ontario Regional Economist Alex Medow kicked-off the day's presentations by offering an overview of economic conditions, job markets and demographics and explaining the role they play in the province's home resale markets and new housing construction.

"Ontario's economy, while expanding for much of the past decade, has seen its most significant growth over the last three years," Medow says. "Despite the fact that southern Ontario has seen the majority of this growth, we are now seeing and expecting some of this expansion in Northern Ontario."

"Sluggishness in the U.S. economy may slow Ontario's manufacturing and export sectors. Currently, however, the province's economic indicators are mostly positive, and the strong job growth is predicted to continue."

Commenting on Ontario's resale home markets versus new home markets, Medow says new construction is dependent on the state of the local resale market.

If the resale market is "loose" and prices are affordable enough, there won't be as much new construction. "Home ownership is still reasonably affordable," he says. But, Ontario is heading toward a moderate expansion in 2001 and the average home price is going up. This excludes Thunder Bay, where new home prices are down. Areas with the greatest amount of economic growth will see the biggest expansion in the market, he says.

Thunder Bay's housing market has suffered in recent years because of an out-migration trend.

Philp expects the June 2001...