City in transition.

• Author: Ross, Ian
• Position: Economic trends

Doug Murray prefers thinking ahead only in three-year increments.

The former mill manager at Resolute Forest Products knows how quickly fortunes in business and the economy can collapse without warning.

"What can you project?" said Murray Thunder Bay's economic development CEO. "If you would have looked back in 2011 with all the hype surrounding Cliffs (Natural Resources) and the Ring of Fire, you would have thought it would already be here in spades by now, and we would by directly influenced by it.

"Now we're smarter and we know this process is going to take a little while longer," said a chuckling Murray.

The Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission (CEDC) released its new Strategic Plan in mid-October, outlining the department's priorities for the next three years.

Once heavily reliant on forestry and transportation, the northwestern Ontario city is becoming more diversified with a growing medical research institute, postsecondary expansion, and advances in the high-tech sector.

The 20-page "Transitioning to Growth" document touches upon established and budding growth opportunities in entrepreneurship, mining, business retention and expansion, innovation in manufacturing, training and education, logistics and supply chain, among other areas.

The local unemployment rate remains steady at 4.9 per cent and seasonally adjusted employment stands close to 63,000 jobs, said Murray but the No. I issue concerning the local business community is where are the skilled employees going to come from?

Industry attrition from forestry mill closures and youth outmigration has Thunder Bay fighting the clock and it needs to attract more talent to town.

"We're going to be influenced by the demographic changes sooner than the rest of the country" said Murray. "It's only going to continue to become an issue as more of the baby boomers retire."

In 2006, when the CEDC was incorporated, few were talking about a knowledge-based economy and the Thunder Bay Regional Research Institute was still in its infancy.

Today, there's more diversity of employment, and high-tech, automated manufacturers like XLV Diagnostics, makers of portable mammograms, need top-end talent as they move prototype products through the commercialization stage.

"We have to attract and retain people like that as we build that type of...