Trends do not shape destiny: North can reap benefits of anticipated population explosion in U.S.

• Author: Michels, Bob
• Position: The Way It Is

Every year, everyone gets one year older. That, along with tracking the birth rate is the guiding principle for demographers. Do demographic trends represent destiny? Not necessarily, because even demographic trends can change over several generations. Northern Ontario presents us with an excellent example.

For generations, the birth rate in Northern Ontario tended to hover above five children per couple, leading the nation.

Over the past 30 years, however, our regional birth rate dropped well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per couple, while the rate for Canada ranges just above 1.0. Canada owes its miniscule growth in population entirely to new immigrants.

In Northern Ontario, the decline in our population is aggravated by the fact of our youth moving elsewhere for post-secondary education, better career opportunities, or the attraction of the big-city lights, and the fact that our region is not a magnet for immigrants. As a result, the population of virtually, every community in Northern Ontario is experiencing a severe rate of decline. Only our First Nation communities are showing population increases.

But, as we noted, trend is not necessarily destiny. Historic trends would lead us to speculate that the rest of the prosperous Western nations should also be about to experience a population decline. Not so.

According to recent figures, the birth rate in the United States is back close to replacement levels and, thanks to immigration, their population is on the rise, above the most optimistic projections made following the 1990 census.

Today the U.S. population has almost doubled to 281 million. More significantly, the population of the United States now is projected to rise to somewhere between 400 and 550 million.

While we will be worrying over the next 50 years will we have enough youth to fund the Canada Pension Plan and to pay for the health-care costs associated with an aging population, the Americans will be busy building new primary and secondary schools.

To the degree that we and our governments can find ways to rejuvenate our region and reposition it as...