Gearing Up for the Next Election.

• Author: Groves, David
• Position: Canadian Study of Parliament Group

On January 18, 2019, the Canadian Study of Parliament Group held a seminar entitled "Gearing Up for the Next Election" to hear from experts about the preparations necessary in advance of the fall 2019 election. The well-attended gathering brought together political strategists as well as the Chief Electoral Officer and Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Political Strategy

The seminar opened with a panel of political strategists offering their assessment of where Canada's federal political parties currently stand and their predictions for the 2019 federal election.

Michele Austin, Head of Government, Public Policy, and Philanthropy at Twitter Canada, spoke first. She focused on what Twitter can tell Canadians about the issues resonating with Canadians and what strengths each party will bring to the election. First, she noted that Twitter's audience is young and interested in politics--in her assessment, the biggest organic hashtag (i.e., not a product of an advertising campaign) is #cdnpoli (which directs users to tweets about Canadian politics). Second, she noted that the biggest policy conversations among Canadian Twitter users tend to revolve around energy and immigration--and that these are, as a result, likely to be big subjects during the federal election. Lastly, she observed that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau receives, by far, the most attention and engagement on Twitter of all the federal party leaders, but that some portion of this engagement comes from abroad. As such, she questioned whether his popularity online would translate into a strong showing at the ballot box.

Kevin Bosch, Vice President of Public Affairs at Hill+Knowlton Strategies, opened his remarks with a discussion on recent polling. After reviewing survey results suggesting a close race between the Liberal Party and Conservative Party of Canada with a lot of fluidity in voter intention, Mr. Bosch predicted that both parties will have strong incentives to avoid moderation and to make bold partisan or ideological appeals in their platforms and campaigns. He further predicted that policy-making and platform development in 2019, both in the lead up to and during the election, will be faster and more reactive than in the past; parties will be engaging with the electorate in real time on social media. Last, he noted recent changes in electoral administration that are likely to have an effect. These include: a heightened concern around foreign interference; the establishment of the independent debate commission; the imposition of third-party pre-election spending limits; and the expansion of voting rights for Canadians living abroad.

Karl Belanger...