Nova Scotia and the "problem" of minority government.

• Author: Hyson, Stewart

Stewart Hyson is a political scientist in Saint John, New Brunswick.

In 1848 Nova Scotia was the first overseas jurisdiction of the former British Empire to gain responsible government. Over the years a strong two-party tradition prevailed and the province had little experience with minority government although on a couple of occasions the Government had a very slim majority. The election of March 24, 1998 produced a legislature with 19 Liberals, 19 New Democrats and 14 Progressive Conservatives. This article looks at the political situation in Nova Scotia following the election. It also reviews the literature on minority government in general and concludes by suggesting that this minority situation may lead to a rebirth of interest in the art of responsible government in Nova Scotia.

Following the 1998 election the existing government led by Premier Russell MacLellan decided to remain in office despite its greatly reduced numbers (19 instead of 39 seats).(1) Premier MacLellan decided to appoint a much smaller cabinet of 12 members and to proceed without entering a coalition or negotiating a formal pact with either of the opposition parties. Because the NDP had to fulfill its role as the Official Opposition much of the attention has been and will be centred on the Conservatives as the minority third party. In effect, the Liberal government has to depend on the support of its arch rivals.

One of the first manifestations of the new situation was the decision to elect the Speaker by secret ballot. Opposition MLAs defeated the government's nominee and succeeded in having a Tory chosen as Speaker and an NDPer as Deputy Speaker. In both legislative and budgetary matters the MacLellan government seems to be more sensitive to the need to accommodate the opposition. The Public Accounts Committee has been especially vigorous, although this might be due more to the controversial allegation of political interference in respect to the province's casinos than the minority government situation.

Both the governing Liberals and the Conservatives are aware of each other's policy priorities, and have an understanding of what it will take to make the minority government work. Informal meetings and talks between key party leaders have been held frequently since the March election and more can be expected. During the spring sitting, compromises were made on many issues while the more divisive issues were avoided. The critical question as to how long this informal arrangement can last is obviously dependent on the circumstances that develop and the persons involved. Actually, although much of the focus with minority government is on what occurs inside the legislature, specifically on the relationships between the government and opposition, everything is dependent on the situation outside the legislature. Specifically, what counts is each party's perception of its relative standing with the electorate: would its representation increase or decrease if a general election was called today?

Despite the political rhetoric of adhering to party policies and not compromising principles on key issues, no party has any desire to go to the polls again too shortly after a general election, especially one that has resulted in a minority government. All parties have to wonder and worry about the low turnout rate in the March election - at approximately 70%, this represented a significant drop from the usual rate of 75%. Was one party hurt more severely than the others by its regular supporters not voting or were the nonvoters evenly distributed across the ranks of all three parties? What would happen if these nonvoters should decide to vote in the next election?

Equally worrisome is the question of money. It takes a considerable sum to conduct a modern election campaign, and it is safe to say that no party in Nova Scotia at the moment has the finances in place to hit the campaign trail again too soon after the last election. Even the NDP, which made the greatest gains and seems to have momentum on its side, probably has an empty campaign chest if it is not deeply in debt from the last election campaign.

A close examination of the election results at the constituency level also reveals why no party is inclined to go to the polls too soon. Although the NDP did make the greatest gains, it has to be guarded about its lack of appeal outside the Halifax metropolitan area (where it won 13 of its seats). By taking only six seats and finishing well behind in most constituencies in the...