No recovery for Northern Ontario in 1992.

• Author: McIntosh, Cliff

What will 1992 bring? It's a puzzle. So many things are changing. Most are changing at the same time, and most are changing radically.

The only certainty is that 1992 will be a year of change and discontinuity. But that is a coward's way out of answering the question. NOB editor Mark Sandford asked me to be brave.

There isn't much good economic news. You know what happens to bad news messengers! But here goes.

* Transportation, newsprint, pulp and paper and mining will not recover in 1992.

* Veneer and particleboard plants will have a slow down.

* The provincial and federal governments will be in crisis.

* There will be major changes in some unions.

* Community economic development will be different.

St. Lawrence Seaway shipping will continue to decline. Changing global grain markets, transportation technologies and supply lines will drive the change.

European and American competition will push Canadian grain suppliers to cut costs. Shippers will seek less expensive, all-season alternatives to the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Tests on options such as shipping through Seattle or down the Mississippi will continue.

The first all-season, long-haul unit trains will likely run between the Prairies and Atlantic ports this year. There will be no significant stops in between.

From a practical, not political, point of view, can you think why these alternatives to the Seaway will not work? I can't. But think about the impact on business and employment at the Port of Thunder Bay, the Soo locks and all along the Seaway.

The political reaction will be severe. But when change is driven by technology and global forces, no matter what party is in power, governments can only slow down the change and soften the impact.

We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the Seaway as a major transportation route. It was a 19th Century dream. It became a 1950s reality just as change forces drove trade in new directions. Except for individual efforts by people such as MP Iain Angus, don't expect action from government.

What about mining in 1992?

Car and appliance makers have reduced production. As a result, Nippon Steel, the world's largest steel maker, cut production by 20 per cent. Mineral producers compete in a global market. Do you think Canadian mines will be immune to Nippon Steel's experience? I don't.

Mineral markets may turn in late 1993. Even then, costs of compliance to government regulations and uncertainty about environmental rules will keep investors wary.

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