Vale Inco strike - the sounds of silence.

• Author: Atkins, Michael
• Position: PRESIDENT'S NOTE

Someone said the other day the strike at Vale Inco might go for another two years. Sounds ridiculous. On the other hand, it is the same source who said last summer the strike would last until spring, which sounded fanciful, but is looking more realistic all the time. The theory is not complicated. The belief is the London Metal Exchange is no longer the true predictor and authority on inventory and the price of nickel. The idea is that the real price of nickel is well below the current seven or eight dollars a pound and that private warehouses around the world are full of nickel and therefore the real lost opportunity for Vale Inco is not that much.

For Vale, on top of the insignificance of the nickel business to their overall enterprise, it is the relatively modest return they will get if they go back to work that is at issue.

This, of course, could be utter nonsense. We may never know.

What is clear at this stage is the company has no interest in sitting down with the union to find common ground. They will not sit down until the union has cried "Uncle" before going to the table and this is hard to do in the churning political democracy of a union. Things need to be a little more nuanced.

When you want an agreement with someone, the most important person in the room is the person on the other side of the table. You look after them. You provide political cover. You treat them with some deference and respect. The reason of course is that your objective is to reach an agreement, not exact revenge or teach lessons. It is impossible to read the company. It is foreign-owned. No Canadian has any meaningful authority. Their game plan, whatever it is, will be revealed when they are ready. For the moment they are probably trying to figure how many people it actually takes to run their business by starting up without the strikers.

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The union has blundered into this situation and has little leverage. Only the ridiculous politics of holding local union elections close to the end of a contract can explain such strange behaviour.

The union has underestimated the company's resolve. This is understandable. Vale Inco settled in Manitoba not that long ago for more than they are prepared to offer in Ontario. This is confusing in any process of gamesmanship.

The union's strategy of challenging Vale around the world is misguided. It dissipates strength and focus at home, inflames the egos of the senior executives of Vale and makes it...